Euro 2024 Predictions: Heartbreaking Semi-Final Exit for England
As the European Championship returns to Germany in 2024, all eyes will be on England as they aim to build on the relative successes of recent major tournaments. The Three Lions reached the semi-finals at the 2018 World Cup and made the final of Euro 2020, before suffering a heartbreaking quarter-final exit at Qatar 2022.
Under Gareth Southgate, England have undoubtedly made progress, escaping the perpetual cycle of underachievement that plagued previous Golden Generations. However, the big prize continues to elude them. Euro 2024 presents another huge opportunity, but also the increasing weight of expectation.
Group Stage
England's Euro 2024 campaign begins in a tricky Group A alongside the Netherlands, Croatia, and Ukraine. The opening match against the Dutch in Munich will be a major test right out of the gates. While not regarded as world-beaters anymore, the Dutch remain a quality side stacked with Premier League talents like Virgil van Dijk, Frenkie de Jong and new Manchester United signing Cody Gakpo.
I predict England will battle to a hard-fought 1-1 draw against the Netherlands, before dispatching Ukraine with relative ease, perhaps with a 3-0 scoreline. The final group game against Croatia could prove to be a banana skin, but I back England's greater attacking quality to ultimately prevail in a 2-1 victory. Finishing top of Group A on 7 points sets up a favourable last-16 tie.
Knockout Rounds
In the Round of 16, I see England being drawn against the runners-up from Group B, most likely Denmark. This could be a tricky game against a well-organized Danish side, but I predict England's attacking talent will eventually break them down for a 2-0 win after a tight first half.
The quarter-finals could then pit England against a resurgent German side in a huge clash between old rivals. Having home advantage in Berlin, I can see Germany putting up a resilient defensive display that frustrates England for long periods. However, a moment of magic from captain Harry Kane or Phil Foden could swing the tie, setting up a narrow 1-0 England triumph after extra time in an epic battle.
Semi-Finals & Heartbreak
England's Euro 2024 journey would then reach the semi-final stage, most likely against France or Spain depending on the other results. Coming up against one of the traditional powerhouses, this is where I predict Southgate's side will ultimately fall just short.
Against France, the experienced quartet of Kylian Mbappe, Antoine Griezmann, Karim Benzema and the evergreen Olivier Giroud could simply have too much attacking quality for England's defense to contain over 120 minutes. Equally, facing Spain's suffocating possession game led by the likes of Pedri, Gavi and the excellent Mikel Merino could frustrate England and lead to them chasing shadows for long periods.
Regardless of the opponent, I can foresee England's hopes being dashed at the penultimate hurdle by the odd lapse in concentration or a debatable refereeing decision. After putting so much effort into reaching the last four again, losing in such heartbreaking fashion would be a bitter pill to swallow.
Reasons for Prediction
So why do I predict another semi-final disappointment for the Three Lions at Euro 2024? Firstly, the weight of expectation could become a crushing burden. After reaching at least the semi-finals in the last three major tournaments, anything less at Euro 2024 will likely be deemed a failure by many. That psychological pressure is immense on a team still relatively young in years.
Secondly, I question if this England crop has the outright world-class quality and squad depth to outlast the very elite teams over the knockout rounds. For all of England's undoubted talents like Kane, Foden, Jude Bellingham and Bukayo Saka, do they quite have the Same match-winning x-factor as France's frightening attack or Spain's midfield technicians? I'm not fully convinced.
The third factor that could halt England's momentum is the relatively inexperienced management team around Southgate. Compared to serial winners like Didier Deschamps and Luis Enrique, there are still question marks over Southgate's ability to make decisive tactical adjustments and game-changing substitutions in crucial knockout matches.
Finally, England's defensive vulnerabilities at set pieces and in transition could be mercilessly exposed by the very top sides. While their attack is wonderfully fluid and versatile, England have a tendency to switch off at the back and can be carved open by the most clinical opponents, as we saw in the Euro 2020 final against Italy's relentless pressing.
Narrative of the Semi-Final
So if my prediction is correct, what would the narrative of that agonizing Euro 2024 semi-final exit look like? For me, it would likely follow this script:
After grinding out hard-fought wins over the Netherlands, Croatia, Denmark and Germany, England will head into the semis full of confidence and belief that this time could finally be their year. The fans will be whipped into a frenzy, dreams of ending 58 years of hurt tantalisingly within reach.
The opening 45 minutes could follow an overly cautious pattern, with both teams cancelling each other out through an unwillingness to commit too many bodies forward. Chances may be at a premium, with defences remaining on top.
Then, just before the hour mark, the decisive moment could arrive. A slip from one of England's centre-backs allows a defence-splitting throughball to release Mbappe or another world-class forward through on goal. Despite getting a touch, the striker keeps their composure and arrows an unstoppable strike into the corner.
Suddenly facing a deficit, the pressure ramps up on England's shoulders. As they start to commit more players forward desperately chasing an equaliser, gaps begin to open up at the back which the opposition gleefully looks to exploit on the counter. One or two golden chances to level could go begging.
Then, deep into injury time, the moment of drama and controversy. A goalmouth scramble ensues from a corner, with England adamant the ball struck a defender's arm. Despite huge protests, the referee waves play on and the opposition clear the danger at the death.
There would be recriminations and bitter tears on the pitch at the final whistle. So near, yet so far again. Gareth Southgate's position severely questioned. The players left shattered after pouring their all into reaching another semi-final, only to ultimately fall short again. Hope and expectation giving way to familiar heartbreak.
That's the Euro 2024 journey I can foresee for England, agonisingly ending in more semi-final disappointment against one of the traditional elite nations. Of course, I could be completely wrong - this latest Golden Generation may finally go all the way and banish those decades of underachievement.
But the hard truth is that at major tournaments, beating the very best teams requires the perfect blend of quality, tactical mastery, concentration and perhaps even luck over 120 agonising minutes. One small lapse can be terminal. Based on the evidence of recent tournaments, I don't yet see England as having quite the complete package to overcome that semi-final stumbling block.
Still, the dream remains undeniable. Millions will be daring to dream again in Germany next summer, with the burning hope that this time, the stars could finally align for Harry Kane and co to rip off the 'perennial underachiever' label once and for all. Just maybe, Euro 2024 could be the one.
